No one, and I mean no one, saw this coming. Hillary Clinton won a close yet decisive victory over Barack Obama in the New Hampshire Democratic primary. It was a major surprise; as I type this, the RealClearPolitics poll average for NH still has Obama in the lead by nearly 9 points.

The main reason relates to the Republican results, which were somewhat surprising: John McCain won, as expected, but by a somewhat greater and more decisive margin than predicted by most. Romney was supposedly gaining ground, but instead he lost by nearly the same amount he did in Iowa.

Both results are connected to one major factor: Independent voters. Registered Independents are allowed to vote for any party candidate in the NH primary, and Independents have historically been very popular with the moderate, mixed-bag John McCain (he even won in 2000 over George W. Bush for the same reason). What pollsters were predicting was a more even split in Independent votes to favor Obama (which was accurate: the Independents that did vote Democrat voted for Barack); however, nearly all the Independents voted Republican for McCain, giving him a greater margin than expected and a narrow loss for Obama.

John Edwards, too, had an inadvertent effect, causing a split of the anti-Clinton vote between him and Barack. The fact that Edwards didn't drop out tonight will continue to help her.

Outlook

For the Democrats: I have been predicting Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee ever since the beginning, and after this win I am going to stand behind it. An Obama win is entirely plausible, but Clinton has the organization and base that Obama now needs to build. She is leading big in Nevada, California, and New York; but Obama still leads big in South Carolina. It's impossible to say how the momentum will affect either candidate.

For the Republicans: I cannot make any certain predictions. Michigan is going to be a big barometer. It is a dead heat between Romney and Huckabee for first, Giuliani and McCain for second. Giuliani is the man to watch for the next month: he could pull ahead in some of the bigger states such as Florida, California, and then a handful on Super Tuesday.

Just a quick prediction for NH:

Democrats:

Barack Obama, no question. He is going to win in NH and do very well. He might even win with over 10 percentage points, which could do serious damage to Clinton's national campaign.

Republicans:

This field is a virtual tie between John McCain and Mitt Romney. John McCain will benefit from the fact that Independents can vote in the primary in NH. However, Romney is catching up fast and it's too soon to say McCain is going to clean up. It is going to be extremely close, but I'm going to give McCain a very narrow victory. I'm not trying to avoid being wrong, but don't be surprised if Romney clinches a close victory himself.


Bottom Line:

Obama wins big, McCain wins narrowly.