Tonight's two contests fulfilled virtually every prediction. Clinton is winning a narrow but decisive victory in Indiana, but losing by a very large margin in North Carolina. It is still early in the returns, but it is no question that he wins NC, and by a larger margin than he loses in Indiana.

What does this mean? Let's first look at how the Obama camp will spin it.

Obama's victory means that he is the more popular. He was able to win big in North Carolina and lose small in Indiana. The pure math is in his favor and indicates him as more electable, and thus more appropriate for the nomination. It is just another in his long list of states that he has racked up and indicates a will among the electorate for his nomination.

This is what the campaign will say, and most likely what the Democratic leadership will take into consideration. It is now extremely difficult for Hillary to steal this nomination, even though I still believe she is the one who should run against McCain. Why do I think this, even after this night that looks so good for Obama?

What I think tonight really proved was Obama as the race candidate. He won over 90% of the black vote, and in NC this is over 1/3 of the electorate. This allowed every network to call the state the second the polls closed. In Indiana, he did just as well among blacks, but there simply weren't enough to counter Clinton's popularity in the other groups. Clinton won, in both states, both white men and women, seniors, uneducated citizens, and working class voters. This is the majority of America and the majority of voters.

Tonight should prove to the superdelegates that Barack Obama cannot win outside of the "black belt" if you will, such as the south. He won other states early on because of a wise campaign strategy that focused on caucus states and his messianic speeches about change and hope. But he lost that magic. He looked like an absolute idiot at the debate in Philadelphia, is on record for insulting the religious beliefs and gun ownership of the majority of Americans, is close to a pastor that has repeatedly insulted his country and associated Obama with him, is close to a terrorist who has attempted to bomb multiple government establishments, and is married to a woman who has never before felt proud to be an American. This will all come out again in the general election.

Clinton carries baggage as well. But she is doing an incredible job lately overcoming these negatives. She looks vibrant, looks happy, looks friendly, and looks like she's having fun. Her interview with Bill O'Reilly was smart, and she looked on her game and intelligent. She is down to earth and has a clear set of solutions.

Barack Obama seems to have a golden road to the nomination because of the thick-headedness of Democratic party leaders. But he cannot beat McCain. He will get eaten alive by not only McCain but by independent groups that will do everything they can to keep him out of the White House. He just claimed, in his NC victory speech, that Thomas Jefferson was a Democrat! Watching this speech, he sounds like he is trying to rejuvenate the magic that got him through the string of states after Super Tuesday. That is what it was: magic. Barack Obama is a complete moron with no qualifications whatsoever for president. He will absolutely destroy this country for every American, rich and poor. His policy is unwise, unsound, and poorly thought out. This will be proven when McCain spars with him and shows that this guy just doesn't have a clue.

Barack Obama is change we can't believe in. He hasn't done a thing in the name of change for his entire career. He is in it for a promotion; if he really cared about the party and the country, he would drop out and throw his support behind Hillary. Same goes for her. They are selfish and only in it for themselves. I want Hillary Clinton to win the national to avoid the redefinition of the GOP while still maintaining some semblance of a successful America, but if Obama gets in there is no avoiding the disasters he will incur.

Tonight means that Obama is the race candidate. He cannot win in the general election, where blacks don't make up 1/3 of the electorate. McCain will win the south, and Obama will get creamed in the swing states. So who knows: maybe a few smart Dems will realize it's Clinton's chance. But I doubt it. And the Democrats will, as Paul Krugman said, "snatch defeat from the jaws of victory."

What a night for Hillary Clinton! Her nearly ten-point victory in Pennsylvania Tuesday night over Barack Hussein Obama put her back in the race, and in no small way. Make no mistake about it: this was a blowout. The polls were predicting a five- or six-point margin, and Obama spent nearly three times as much as Clinton did in the Keystone State. She still massacred him by a near double-digit lead. This is not only bad news for Obama, but also for the Democratic Party and its leaders.

By winning Pennsylvania, Clinton has called into question one of the most hailed qualities brought up about Barack Obama: his ability to unite. Obama still cannot beat her; Tuesday night wasn’t even close! My question to Obama supporters is this: How do you expect a man to unite the entire country when, after three months of primaries and nearly a year of campaigning, he can’t even unite his own party? Yes, he has a slight delegate majority, but in the popular vote that includes Michigan and Florida, he has virtually no lead. The magic that got him through several major primaries and caucuses is gone: we don’t hear the “change, hope, future” mantra like we used to.

His electability is also becoming a serious question that the superdelegates have to address. And that is what matters: the superdelegates. Neither of these candidates can get the 2025 delegates needed to secure the nomination. If you look at the general election, Clinton actually has the better chances. Out of the past seven presidents, two have been Democrats. Both have been from the south, and have thus won the south. But now, as in 2000 and 2004, it will be swing states that decide who gets the majority of electoral votes. These states are Ohio, Florida, and Michigan. Clinton is the one who can beat McCain here, not Obama. They are classic Clinton demographic, just like Pennsylvania: mostly white, older populations, lower incomes. She gets 60+% of each of these groups virtually every time. Obama did well in states that are going to go Republican in November anyway.

The debate in Philadelphia last Wednesday night didn’t help Obama much either. The majestic image of strength, hope, and unity just fell apart when his script got taken away. He can barely string two words together without an “umm” or “uhh,” and clearly has no idea what the capital gains tax is or how it works. His socialism was blatant when he claimed that he would raise taxes on the rich not for economic gains but for the sake of “fairness.” He wouldn’t take a stand on the D.C. gun ban, even after he claimed that people in middle America “cling to guns, religion, and antipathy towards those different from themselves” because of their economic frustrations. (In Pennsylvania, Clinton won 60% of gun owners and Church goers.)

At the same debate, Clinton had her act together. Her clear, concise answers to many of the economic questions made Barack look incompetent and foolish. She also didn’t stutter, and her references to the economic prosperity of the 1990s (of which she wishes to appear involved with) reminded people of the great times of that decade. It is a winning strategy for her: Elect another Clinton for another 8 years of economic success!

Clinton’s campaign has also been extremely successful in the recent weeks. While the debate was I think a stroke of luck (way to go Charlie Gibson for holding him accountable to the facts about taxes), Clinton is the one who has torn Obama off the pedestal that he was on. She is attacking him relentlessly on his inexperience and lack of substance. Her husband is saying that his victory in South Carolina was the same as Jesse Jackson’s in the 1980s. Gerry Ferraro is saying that he is only successful because he’s black. And they will not apologize for anything they are saying! They’re tougher on Obama than McCain has been. And how does Obama respond? He whines about negativity. He is being wimpy and more of a woman than Clinton ever was. As I mentioned above: the magic is gone.

Compared to McCain, however, I believe both of them will be greatly disadvantaged. While McCain isn’t the best of speakers, he’ll look fine in a debate setting. When he lays out the facts of his economic plan that have proven plans to help the economy and lower gas prices, he will pick up a lot of support. He will garner a huge number of center and even center-left voters, leaving either Democrat in the dust.

I do not know which candidate will be nominated. But it is unquestionable that Clinton is the more electable than Obama in the general contest. If the superdelegates are smart, they’ll nominate her. But as evidenced by the past thirty years, Democrats don’t know how to nominate a candidate. So in conclusion, while it is glaringly obvious to anyone with a brain stem that Clinton has a better chance than the moronic pretty-boy Obama, the Democrats still may not make that smart decision. And if they don’t, McCain is assured a seat in that White House on January 21, 2009.

As Hillary took the stage for her victory speech in Columbus, Ohio, last night, there was one thing going through our minds: "Welcome back." (Or "Crap, why won't you just go away, you witch!") After a long stretch of losses to the Magic Negro, Clinton's massive and surprising victories in Ohio, Texas, and Rhode Island have rejuvenated her campaign and put her back on the map.

What does this mean, and why did she need it?

The Democratic race is no longer about delegate count. It is about the unaffiliated superdelegates that get to decide the nominee regardless of popular opinion. Technically before last night there was a chance either could gain the 2025 delegates needed, but it was unlikely. It is now impossible; there simply aren't enough delegates to go around. This election is probably going all the way to the convention this summer.

These big wins are about showing the superdelegates who is the real nominee, and who the mainstream electorate wants to be president. She didn't pick up any significant delegate numbers last night; in fact, Obama may have come out with more in Texas. But the state still gets put in the Clinton column, and that's all the superdelegates will care about. She has won all the major states, while Obama has won the little ones. The next primary is Pennsylvania, but it's not for another 7 weeks, which will continue to bleed each candidate dry on the campaign trail. Clinton is all but guaranteed a victory there, with double-digit leads in the polls.

It is impossible to say who is going to get the superdelegates' votes. I think it will split very evenly down the middle. There is a valid argument for each side. For Clinton: She is a known factor, she's been around for a long time, her ideas are more concrete and logical. For Obama: He is a new face, his numbers are better for electability, he will be much prettier compared to the 72-year-old McCain, and he is a brilliant speaker.

As I predicted, crunch time is approaching and the party is fleeing from the unknown Obama to the safe Clinton. She demonstrated her "experience" over the NAFTA deal these past weeks, as she was in the White House for its creation. The SNL skit mocking the media's Obama-favor also definitely helped, especially because of its accuracy. (83% of "objective" news coverage of Obama was positive. That is ridiculous!)

A group of Democrat leaders were about to approach Clinton requesting her to drop out in order to maintain unity in the party. But there is no way she will now. She wants this more than anyone can imagine, and she has a real shot. She'd rather take her chances in the general election for her own benefit than drop out for the benefit of the party.

Congratulations, Mrs. Clinton. Welcome back.

Super Sunday was all fine and dandy (go Giants!), but now it's time for Super Tuesday. There always is a super Tuesday during the primary election season, but this year it is far more "super" than ever. Because February 5 was the new earliest date set by the two parties for state primaries, Nearly every state moved its election up to it. Tomorrow, 22 states will be opening their polling places for Democrats and Republicans to choose their nominee.

I was extremely excited for this day ever since a few months ago, but my reasoning behind this excitement has shifted. I couldn't wait to see which Republican was chosen, which I believed would be unclear until tomorrow's results were in. Furthermore, the Democratic race was all but finished, with Hillary getting the nomination. It seems, however, that the winds have changed.

The Republican nominee is clear, and tomorrow proves to be a blowout for him. John McCain is going to take the cake in nearly every state that votes tomorrow, securing his nomination for the GOP seat in November. I really have to stop endorsing candidates; every time I do, they drop out within a week. It's going to happen again tomorrow, as Mitt's campaign goes up in smoke.

The Democrats are going to be far more fascinating. While Hillary maintains a significant lead in the majority of states, it has been slipping over the past few days. It is now unclear whether she will gain enough delegates tomorrow to effectively finish Barack Obama, especially with most of the states awarding delegates proportionally. We could see a brokered convention in Denver (I believe) this summer.

I'll be examining the long-term effects for the Republican Party after the results tomorrow, which will (most likely) result in McCain's massive victory. Mitt Romney still has a part to play in our party's future, but it just might have to wait four years. He might just be that champion of the "shining city on a hill" that our party needs after Bush's sundering of our coalition. And maybe I can stop writing about this blasted election and cover some real issues!!

Enjoy the returns on your network of choice, although I'll be enjoying Brit Hume's superb coverage on FoxNews.

The votes are in, and Florida Republicans have spoken: John McCain is their choice for the nomination.

McCain being the big winner, Giuliani was the big loser. Rudy was hoping for tonight to be his big break and the main entry into this race, his chance to break late as a top-tier candidate. But after losing big behind both McCain and Romney, the race has become virtually two-sided between these two. A blog rumored that Rudy was going to drop out, maybe as early as tomorrow, and throw his endorsement behind his "friend" McCain. While I still think it is premature to count Rudy completely out, his real chances vaporized tonight. A possible future move for him is as McCain's running mate, in exchange for his early departure and endorsement.

Mitt Romney was the surprise tonight. Just a week ago, he was down several points in the polls to even Giuliani. But he rebounded, even topping McCain yesterday for a little while. He has been within one point of McCain for the past few days. This is significant for a northern newcomer.

John McCain is the clear frontrunner after tonight, but Republicans have not decided. This is a battle about the future of this party, and it is coming down to electability vs. conservatism. While a McCain win would guarantee a Republican White House (and therefore protect us from the disasters of a Democrat president), a Romney win would guarantee the conservative leadership of our party and he could still win nationally. I do not want to see the Reagan coalition fail, as it most surely will under McCain.

Next stop: America. February 5th, is virtually a national primary, as 22 states take to the polls to choose a candidate. We should know who will be running in November after that night (provided there is no brokered convention in either party).

Well, my decision to vote for Fred Thompson appeared to be pointless, as he has dropped out of the race.

This is not a surprise after the results of South Carolina. In fact, my vote was a very spur-of-the-moment decision. I saw him as tired, old, and without any real energy. While I have always loved his ideas, that's not everything a candidate needs. However, he seemed to recover and display this energy at the SC debate, as I explained below. But it came too late, and was not enough for him to pull through. SC was his last chance to make a statement and enter the race for real, but it didn't happen. His campaign was poorly executed and he waited too long to show the energy and passion he apparently really does have.

Anyways, what now? I have no idea who to support. I'd be perfectly content with either Mitt Romney or Rudy Giuliani; we'll just have to see what happens. I just hope conservatism predominates in whomever the candidate works out to be.

The roller coaster that is the race for the Republican Party nomination continues!

John McCain won another primary, this time in South Carolina. It was a close victory, a mere 3 points ahead of Mike Huckabee. Fred Thompson came in a distant third.

During McCain's victory speech, I, and I believe many voters, found myself thinking, "This could be the guy." National polls show him winning the nomination by around 10 points, and he is up in Florida, the next primary before the 22 states on Super Tuesday. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. McCain's victories are significant and do help him greatly, but it is still far too early to say he is the guy. He is neck and neck with Rudy Giuliani in Florida, who could quickly close the gap with another week in appearances and the more money he has. Huckabee is also gaining some ground there, making it a bloodbath that will be interesting to watch and is completely unpredictable. Florida is also a closed primary, which will only help Rudy and hurt McCain.

The big loser in South Carolina was, unfortunately, my man Fred Thompson. His surge came far too late, and wasn't enough. His superb performance in the debate last week brought him back onto the main stage, but he still couldn't break through. South Carolina was his last big chance to do well, being a conservative southern state very near to his home Tennessee. I believe he will pull out of the race soon after Florida, if not before. It is unfortunate, because he is the truest conservative, and that is why I believe he should be our president. Electability? National polls show him losing by smaller margins to both Clinton and Obama than Romney. And the money that will just rain from the skies for the nominee once the party has spoken would help immensely. But he did not show any passion or presence until just over a week ago, and he paid for it dearly.

Huckabee is also beginning to fail, as I believed he would. The fact that he couldn't win in South Carolina proves that not only can't he expand his base beyond evangelicals, he can't win amongst them. Surprisingly, many evangelicals (according to exit polling) went for McCain, which could prove an interesting result among that bloc in Florida. A split vote in that category could propel Rudy to the win.

Do not forget about Rudy now. He does not even need to win Florida to remain prominent. He is going to make a speech on next Tuesday night, whether he wins or loses, and it will remind people that this guy is still around. He is polling very well still in New York, Illinois, Ohio, Missouri, and elsewhere; he is even going to give McCain a run for his money in his home state of Arizona, where McCain's immigration policies will be an effective weapon to sway the very anti-amnesty electorate. If the polls are used to predict delegate distribution on a state-by-state basis, Rudy Giuliani is still the frontrunner. But like I said, there is no real frontrunner right now.

So to sum up:

• Thompson is effectively finished.
• Huckabee's ship is quickly sinking as he proves his inability to appeal outside of one demographic.
• McCain is gaining speed, but is not yet even close to being a definitive winner.
• Rudy Giuliani has a big chance in Florida, but can still clinch many other states to gain enough delegates. He is about to enter this race at very high speed starting on the 29th and then on Super Tuesday (Feb. 5th).
• Mitt Romney leads the delegate count, but only by a mere 20 or so. But his appeal to conservatives and his monetary resources will only move him along to more.

Mitt Romney's victory over John McCain in Michigan last night further complicates the GOP race, and continues to prove how this is by no means a normal election. Momentum does not seem to be important to voters right now, but I think this victory signals a shift that will happen nationally in the next few states: identity politics to issues.

In Iowa, Huckabee won because of the turnout of evangelical voters that feel they must vote for him because he himself is an evangelical. He is liberal on many key conservative issues, such as taxes, immigration, and national security; he is, however, forgiven by his evangelical compatriots. In New Hampshire, McCain won (again) as the turnout of Independents greatly benefit him (again). Polls touting Obama as the obvious Democrat winner probably convinced many Independents to vote for McCain instead.

In Michigan, however, Romney's family history (his father was a MI governor), while I'm sure it didn't hurt, probably isn't why he won. Romney has been spending a lot of time and money in that state trying to appeal to conservatives and Republicans, something Huckabee and McCain seem to have no interest in doing. Giuliani and Thompson are doing the same as Romney, but in they had no presence in Michigan to speak of. I believe that as this race goes on, Huckabee and McCain will fade away as nominees who are running a very broad, shallow campaign as opposed to the deep, narrow campaigns of Romney, Giuliani, and Thompson.

Outlook

The GOP field is now very cluttered, and it could stay that way for another couple weeks. If Thompson can pull a second or even definitive third in South Carolina, he can become a serious candidate with a revitalized campaign. If he gains some airtime and momentum, his true conservatism could attract Republican voters in other states.

Huckabee will have to fight in SC, where his numbers have begun to slip, and in the long run he will need to extend his appeal beyond evangelicals. I do not think he can.

Giuliani's next target is Florida, and he could very well win it. His lack of any presence thus far is damaging him greatly, but if he pulls through in Florida, he has a shot. He is also in the top tier in many Super Tuesday states. If he wins in Florida, we'll have yet another major candidate to consider in this crazy contest.

McCain is an interesting study. He leads in the national polls by nearly 10 points (RCP average), but I really do not think he can get the nomination. Against a Democrat, he could probably do very well, but in the race against the 3 aforementioned targeting conservatives, he will begin to have trouble in closed primaries that are only available to GOP voters (unlike NH and MI).

No one, and I mean no one, saw this coming. Hillary Clinton won a close yet decisive victory over Barack Obama in the New Hampshire Democratic primary. It was a major surprise; as I type this, the RealClearPolitics poll average for NH still has Obama in the lead by nearly 9 points.

The main reason relates to the Republican results, which were somewhat surprising: John McCain won, as expected, but by a somewhat greater and more decisive margin than predicted by most. Romney was supposedly gaining ground, but instead he lost by nearly the same amount he did in Iowa.

Both results are connected to one major factor: Independent voters. Registered Independents are allowed to vote for any party candidate in the NH primary, and Independents have historically been very popular with the moderate, mixed-bag John McCain (he even won in 2000 over George W. Bush for the same reason). What pollsters were predicting was a more even split in Independent votes to favor Obama (which was accurate: the Independents that did vote Democrat voted for Barack); however, nearly all the Independents voted Republican for McCain, giving him a greater margin than expected and a narrow loss for Obama.

John Edwards, too, had an inadvertent effect, causing a split of the anti-Clinton vote between him and Barack. The fact that Edwards didn't drop out tonight will continue to help her.

Outlook

For the Democrats: I have been predicting Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee ever since the beginning, and after this win I am going to stand behind it. An Obama win is entirely plausible, but Clinton has the organization and base that Obama now needs to build. She is leading big in Nevada, California, and New York; but Obama still leads big in South Carolina. It's impossible to say how the momentum will affect either candidate.

For the Republicans: I cannot make any certain predictions. Michigan is going to be a big barometer. It is a dead heat between Romney and Huckabee for first, Giuliani and McCain for second. Giuliani is the man to watch for the next month: he could pull ahead in some of the bigger states such as Florida, California, and then a handful on Super Tuesday.

Just a quick prediction for NH:

Democrats:

Barack Obama, no question. He is going to win in NH and do very well. He might even win with over 10 percentage points, which could do serious damage to Clinton's national campaign.

Republicans:

This field is a virtual tie between John McCain and Mitt Romney. John McCain will benefit from the fact that Independents can vote in the primary in NH. However, Romney is catching up fast and it's too soon to say McCain is going to clean up. It is going to be extremely close, but I'm going to give McCain a very narrow victory. I'm not trying to avoid being wrong, but don't be surprised if Romney clinches a close victory himself.


Bottom Line:

Obama wins big, McCain wins narrowly.

Let's dive right into it, shall we? Iowa was only a few days ago, on January 3rd, and it brought some interesting results. Here are some things to keep in mind about what happened, how it happened, and what possible results could be:

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The 2008 nomination process is proving to be just as exciting as we all expected! A quick recap: In the Iowa Caucus, Mike Huckabee took the delegates for the Republicans at 34%, followed by Mitt Romney (25%) and then distantly by a (virtually) tied Fred Thompson and John McCain (13%). Ron Paul was around 11%, and Rudy Giuliani was nowhere to be seen around 4%. For the Democrats, Barack Obama came in a solid first place with 38%, followed by John Edwards (30%) and Hillary Clinton (29%). Bill Richardson was next at 2%, and Chris Dodd dropped out of the race.


REPUBLICANS

How did it happen?

Mike Huckabee has been leading in Iowa for a couple weeks, but the average of all the major polls showed his lead by under 1%. Clearly, his victory was by a far greater margin. The secret to his victory tonight was the turnout of evangelical voters. According to the entrance polls, 60% of Iowa Republicans identified themselves as Christian evangelicals, and 45% of this group pledged their support to Huckabee. Furthermore, Christian evangelicals are less likely to support a Mormon, further putting Romney at a disadvantage. Identity politics clearly gave Huckabee a huge leg-up; he spent about $400,000 in Iowa compared to Romney’s $8 million. Huckabee’s record is not conservative, but Midwestern evangelicals identify more closely with the buck-toothed southern minister than the slick northeastern politician.

What does it mean?

Mike Huckabee did very well in Iowa, but the only real surprise was the margin by which he won. Polls had him pegged as the victor in Iowa for the past 2 weeks, and the fact that his evangelical background attracted that crucial voting bloc is not an upset. He has a very difficult, uphill battle ahead of him. He is off the map in New Hampshire, a full 20% below Romney and McCain. While this victory is sure to boost him, he will not have the massive base support he enjoyed in Iowa. Without a New Hampshire victory, he may quickly lose the momentum of this race. What will really make a difference for Huckabee is the Michigan primary which is on January 15. It is his next chance to seal his place as a top-tier candidate, but it will be tough. Giuliani and Romney are both polling well there, and if McCain wins in New Hampshire it will be another competitor he needs to overcome. He has a significant lead in South Carolina as well.

Tonight brought a very disappointing result for Mitt Romney. He spent more money than any Republican in Iowa and his big chance went south. However, it’s not the end for Romney; in fact, it may be a blessing in disguise. This could help get his name out there and increase his publicity, which can’t hurt; I foresee him being thought of as “second-place in Iowa” as opposed to “the guy who lost in Iowa.” New Hampshire is his next big chance, where McCain is the man to beat. Luckily for him, his massive personal wealth will allow him to devote a lot of efforts in both Michigan and New Hampshire, a luxury that McCain and Giuliani do not enjoy.

Fred Thompson’s results tonight epitomize his place in this election. He is worth mentioning, but really doesn’t have a chance to win this election. His supporters see him as the only true Reaganesque conservative, but he isn’t leading anywhere at the moment. If he had pulled a solid third in Iowa, he might have had something to build on; but he came in a very close fourth with McCain. I don’t foresee him lasting much longer in this race unless he can drum up some real support in a major state, which is unlikely.

John McCain had a good night in Iowa. Even though he was in third place, his biggest fear was averted, namely a Romney victory. Romney is his biggest threat in New Hampshire, and a win in Iowa could have given him a big boost to beat McCain. But because of Huckabee’s victory, we might see a stall in Romney’s campaign, giving McCain a clear path to the 24 delegates from that state. But it’s too early to tell how Iowa will affect Romney’s (and McCain’s, for that matter) support.

Ron Paul? While a fundraising miracle, his supporters do nothing more than log in to their Pay-Pal accounts and put up signs in the middle of the night. He has a huge cult following, but they are far and few between. He remains in the single digits, remaining so insignificant that not only does he have no chance of winning, but he won’t even affect other candidates. Don’t expect to hear more from this one.

Rudy Giuliani was conspicuously absent from tonight’s proceedings, both in the numbers and in the commentary. But this is hardly a surprise. He barely spent any money or time on Iowa, focusing instead on the big states. This could either be smart or stupid: he does not have as much money as Romney, and he saved a lot by not campaigning in Iowa (where he probably wouldn’t have done well anyways); however, the momentum from winners in these states could overcome his efforts elsewhere. He’s way down in New Hampshire, but is part of the 3- (and maybe 4-) way tie we are seeing take shape in Michigan. But his real chance will be in Nevada and then Florida. If he can win in Florida, that victory can propel him into Super Tuesday (February 5), where over 20 states are holding primaries in which he has good chances (such as New York and California, which total 274 delegates alone, and over 1000 that day alone).

The Last Word

Huckabee’s Iowa win is significant, but only means that the field is becoming more cluttered rather than clearer. His success probably won’t transfer into New Hampshire, which will allow either Romney or McCain to gain some momentum as well. However, Giuliani, while completely absent in these first two states, is someone to watch as a late-breaker. He is hoping that his decision to focus on late, big states will overcome the momentum gained by winners of the early ones. Fred Thompson and Ron Paul are slowly descending into oblivion.

DEMOCRATS

How did it happen?


Barack Obama won Iowa for the Democrats, but the real story here is Clinton’s third-place finish. The entrance polls tell the story: 45% of the voters claim that change is the most important quality in the candidate, and 50% of those said Barack was the candidate most able to bring about change. Ipso facto, Barack wins. Turnout was also a huge surprise for the Democrats. Many of their caucus places were full, lines going out the door, and actual turnout exceeded expectations by double, in some cases quadruple. Some speculate dealing behind the scenes designed to hurt Hillary, but it is all hypothetical and also requires a detailed explanation of the caucus process which I will not go into here. Obama’s supporters showed up in huge numbers, giving him the solid victory most were expecting.


What does it mean?

Barack Obama’s victory was not a big surprise. He has been leading significantly in the polls for a much longer time and by a much greater margin than Huckabee was. This win is obviously important, giving him momentum and propelling him into the next stage of the race. However, the Clinton Machine is just that: a machine, and it is going to be difficult to take down.

John Edwards did well tonight, and he could not have expected much more. He defeated the “inevitable” Hillary Clinton, and his jubilation was evident and appeared genuine as he spoke in front of cheering fans after the results came in. But it is not easy to say how this will play out for Edwards in the long haul. He has been relatively under the radar in this race, but still bringing up the rear of the top tier. He is polling well behind Obama in his home state of South Carolina, but he may be able to pull ahead after this win and some serious campaigning.

Tonight was all about Hillary Clinton, and not in a good way. This loss is a massive blow to her campaign. It had everything it needed to win Iowa, but it failed. She is not a likable candidate, and I think she may be confusing voters. She has been having trouble coming up with an image that works, but she can’t settle on one. Sometimes she is the woman, sometimes one of the guys. Sometimes she is the experienced commander-in-chief, sometimes she is for change. In her speech from Des Moines after the returns came in, she rattled off her experience but also used the word “change” repeatedly. She is expected to spend tomorrow proving her healthcare plan’s superiority to Obama’s. Her campaign is far from derailed, and tonight I still say that she will win the Democratic nomination. She is leading significantly in most of the next several primaries: 7 points in New Hampshire, 20 points in Nevada, 25 points in Florida; she also holds a very slight lead in South Carolina. She remains over 20 points up nationally. Of course, Iowa’s effect remains to be seen, but her lead is substantial and could simply recover from this blow. New Hampshire is historically more crucial for the Democrats than Iowa anyways.

Bill Richardson’s fourth place finish with 2% shows the irrelevance of every other Democrat. Chris Dodd dropped out tonight, and I’m sure most will follow. Obama, Clinton, and Edwards each represent the three major wings of the Democratic Party, and the others don’t really have anything else to offer. Obama is the symbol of the new Democrats, campaigning as a moderate liberal but mostly just offering an alternative to George W. Bush. Hillary is the symbol of the 1990s, trying to remind voters of the peace and prosperity of that decade and her ability to bring us back to that tranquility. Finally, Edwards is the progressive uber-liberal, openly touting wealth redistribution and anti-American rhetoric.

The Last Word

While a big victory for Obama, the Iowa Caucus remained about Clinton. She lost big, and it is a massive blow to her campaign. However, it is entirely possible that she can recover and maintain her significant leads she currently holds in future primaries. The question is whether her inevitability has been completely lost among Democratic voters, and whether Obama as a viable alternative will dethrone her. The polls of the next few days, from New Hampshire and elsewhere, will tell us how the Iowa results will shape the field. I don’t believe Edwards is for real nationally, due to his extreme liberalism that is unpopular with Americans. But primaries do attract extremes of both parties, and his victory over Clinton could draw more Edwards supporters out to the polls. Again, time will tell. He may just find himself as a running mate once again to attract southern and mega-liberal voters. In any case, the only real players in the Democratic field are these three. If the most conservative candidate can only garner 2% in Iowa, the top tier is closed and sealed.