Super Sunday was all fine and dandy (go Giants!), but now it's time for Super Tuesday. There always is a super Tuesday during the primary election season, but this year it is far more "super" than ever. Because February 5 was the new earliest date set by the two parties for state primaries, Nearly every state moved its election up to it. Tomorrow, 22 states will be opening their polling places for Democrats and Republicans to choose their nominee.

I was extremely excited for this day ever since a few months ago, but my reasoning behind this excitement has shifted. I couldn't wait to see which Republican was chosen, which I believed would be unclear until tomorrow's results were in. Furthermore, the Democratic race was all but finished, with Hillary getting the nomination. It seems, however, that the winds have changed.

The Republican nominee is clear, and tomorrow proves to be a blowout for him. John McCain is going to take the cake in nearly every state that votes tomorrow, securing his nomination for the GOP seat in November. I really have to stop endorsing candidates; every time I do, they drop out within a week. It's going to happen again tomorrow, as Mitt's campaign goes up in smoke.

The Democrats are going to be far more fascinating. While Hillary maintains a significant lead in the majority of states, it has been slipping over the past few days. It is now unclear whether she will gain enough delegates tomorrow to effectively finish Barack Obama, especially with most of the states awarding delegates proportionally. We could see a brokered convention in Denver (I believe) this summer.

I'll be examining the long-term effects for the Republican Party after the results tomorrow, which will (most likely) result in McCain's massive victory. Mitt Romney still has a part to play in our party's future, but it just might have to wait four years. He might just be that champion of the "shining city on a hill" that our party needs after Bush's sundering of our coalition. And maybe I can stop writing about this blasted election and cover some real issues!!

Enjoy the returns on your network of choice, although I'll be enjoying Brit Hume's superb coverage on FoxNews.

On Wednesday, Rudy Giuliani decided to drop out of the GOP race and endorse John McCain. This is yet another windfall for the senator in this latest string of victories. As he gains support from more and more leaders of the Republican Party, his garnering of the nomination is all but inevitable. Mitt Romney is doing all he can to expose McCain as the true threat he is to conservatism and the future of this party, but this is the only way he can win. McCain is now on track to becoming the 44th president, and while I would not vote for his nomination, he would be far more tolerable than any Democrat. He can also handily defeat either Democratic candidate in November (more on them below).

Ron Paul is not worth mentioning. Crap.

Mike Huckabee is slowly dying out, as I predicted he would. Ever since his Iowa win, he has become less relevant every day. He can't even appeal to the evangelicals in South Carolina, who went for McCain, let alone broaden his base.

Rudy Giuliani's early endorsement of McCain may indicate a back-room deal made between the two. I believe that Rudy will be McCain's running mate. He can attract northern voters, possibly even stealing New York from the Democrats.


The Democratic race, which as been a one-on-one from the beginning, is now official with John Edwards departure. The only surprise here is that he waited so long. This race is very fascinating and highly unpredictable. It's almost ironic: 2 months ago, Hillary was the Democrat but the Republican was all but impossible to know. Now, McCain is the Republican but both Dems have a real chance.

I still stick by my prediction that Hillary will be the Democrat. She has the base of the party and is the machine candidate, which historically always wins in that party. The only group she doesn't have going for her is the black vote, which is how Obama won in SC and how he is leading in Alabama. She is still up by double digits in California, New York, and New Jersey. But the DNC awards delegates proportionally, which could provide for a brokered convention. This is Obama's only real chance at being nominated.

The votes are in, and Florida Republicans have spoken: John McCain is their choice for the nomination.

McCain being the big winner, Giuliani was the big loser. Rudy was hoping for tonight to be his big break and the main entry into this race, his chance to break late as a top-tier candidate. But after losing big behind both McCain and Romney, the race has become virtually two-sided between these two. A blog rumored that Rudy was going to drop out, maybe as early as tomorrow, and throw his endorsement behind his "friend" McCain. While I still think it is premature to count Rudy completely out, his real chances vaporized tonight. A possible future move for him is as McCain's running mate, in exchange for his early departure and endorsement.

Mitt Romney was the surprise tonight. Just a week ago, he was down several points in the polls to even Giuliani. But he rebounded, even topping McCain yesterday for a little while. He has been within one point of McCain for the past few days. This is significant for a northern newcomer.

John McCain is the clear frontrunner after tonight, but Republicans have not decided. This is a battle about the future of this party, and it is coming down to electability vs. conservatism. While a McCain win would guarantee a Republican White House (and therefore protect us from the disasters of a Democrat president), a Romney win would guarantee the conservative leadership of our party and he could still win nationally. I do not want to see the Reagan coalition fail, as it most surely will under McCain.

Next stop: America. February 5th, is virtually a national primary, as 22 states take to the polls to choose a candidate. We should know who will be running in November after that night (provided there is no brokered convention in either party).

Well, my decision to vote for Fred Thompson appeared to be pointless, as he has dropped out of the race.

This is not a surprise after the results of South Carolina. In fact, my vote was a very spur-of-the-moment decision. I saw him as tired, old, and without any real energy. While I have always loved his ideas, that's not everything a candidate needs. However, he seemed to recover and display this energy at the SC debate, as I explained below. But it came too late, and was not enough for him to pull through. SC was his last chance to make a statement and enter the race for real, but it didn't happen. His campaign was poorly executed and he waited too long to show the energy and passion he apparently really does have.

Anyways, what now? I have no idea who to support. I'd be perfectly content with either Mitt Romney or Rudy Giuliani; we'll just have to see what happens. I just hope conservatism predominates in whomever the candidate works out to be.

The roller coaster that is the race for the Republican Party nomination continues!

John McCain won another primary, this time in South Carolina. It was a close victory, a mere 3 points ahead of Mike Huckabee. Fred Thompson came in a distant third.

During McCain's victory speech, I, and I believe many voters, found myself thinking, "This could be the guy." National polls show him winning the nomination by around 10 points, and he is up in Florida, the next primary before the 22 states on Super Tuesday. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. McCain's victories are significant and do help him greatly, but it is still far too early to say he is the guy. He is neck and neck with Rudy Giuliani in Florida, who could quickly close the gap with another week in appearances and the more money he has. Huckabee is also gaining some ground there, making it a bloodbath that will be interesting to watch and is completely unpredictable. Florida is also a closed primary, which will only help Rudy and hurt McCain.

The big loser in South Carolina was, unfortunately, my man Fred Thompson. His surge came far too late, and wasn't enough. His superb performance in the debate last week brought him back onto the main stage, but he still couldn't break through. South Carolina was his last big chance to do well, being a conservative southern state very near to his home Tennessee. I believe he will pull out of the race soon after Florida, if not before. It is unfortunate, because he is the truest conservative, and that is why I believe he should be our president. Electability? National polls show him losing by smaller margins to both Clinton and Obama than Romney. And the money that will just rain from the skies for the nominee once the party has spoken would help immensely. But he did not show any passion or presence until just over a week ago, and he paid for it dearly.

Huckabee is also beginning to fail, as I believed he would. The fact that he couldn't win in South Carolina proves that not only can't he expand his base beyond evangelicals, he can't win amongst them. Surprisingly, many evangelicals (according to exit polling) went for McCain, which could prove an interesting result among that bloc in Florida. A split vote in that category could propel Rudy to the win.

Do not forget about Rudy now. He does not even need to win Florida to remain prominent. He is going to make a speech on next Tuesday night, whether he wins or loses, and it will remind people that this guy is still around. He is polling very well still in New York, Illinois, Ohio, Missouri, and elsewhere; he is even going to give McCain a run for his money in his home state of Arizona, where McCain's immigration policies will be an effective weapon to sway the very anti-amnesty electorate. If the polls are used to predict delegate distribution on a state-by-state basis, Rudy Giuliani is still the frontrunner. But like I said, there is no real frontrunner right now.

So to sum up:

• Thompson is effectively finished.
• Huckabee's ship is quickly sinking as he proves his inability to appeal outside of one demographic.
• McCain is gaining speed, but is not yet even close to being a definitive winner.
• Rudy Giuliani has a big chance in Florida, but can still clinch many other states to gain enough delegates. He is about to enter this race at very high speed starting on the 29th and then on Super Tuesday (Feb. 5th).
• Mitt Romney leads the delegate count, but only by a mere 20 or so. But his appeal to conservatives and his monetary resources will only move him along to more.

The absentee ballot for the New York primary election arrived at my house last Monday, and I wanted to mail it from my house before I left. This meant that I had to choose my GOP nominee before I left Tuesday morning.

For the past few months, I've honestly had no idea who to support. I like Rudy Giuliani because of his great successes with crime and the economy and his tough stance on national security. Sure, he had some issues with social matters, but as long as he nominated conservative judges (which he has pledged to do) it really isn't a problem. He also seemed the most electable at the time (which is beginning to change, but we'll see on Super Tuesday...).

I also have little to complain about with Mitt Romney. He is appealing to Republicans. His flip-flops are over the course of years, as opposed to Kerry's which were over the course of minutes, indicating what could be honest changes of opinion (or catering to voters, of course). He has extensive private sector experience and did a decent job as MA governor.

Either of these I would support in a national race for president with little to complain about.

But in the South Carolina debate last week, Fred Thompson shined. The reason I haven't been an outspoken supporter for him is because he hasn't been an outspoken supporter for himself. He has shown little passion or interest throughout his campaign which has turned me and I think many potential voters. But at the debate, he was on fire. He was making jokes, calling out Mike Huckabee (see below), and proving that he truly believes in Reagan and all the great things he represents.

Do I honestly believe he will get nominated? Granted, his chances are slim if nonexistent. But a strong showing in any of the upcoming states could give him some airtime and publicity. And the message of Reagan has always won, if delivered correctly, in a national election. If this change of face is permanent and he can get some airtime, who knows what can happen in the fickle creature that is the GOP race.

So I checked the box for Fred, because it was the right decision that I hope many Republicans will make. If he doesn't get the nomination, that's all right. There are tolerable alternatives. But if there is a true conservative in the race, I cannot ignore him.

Mitt Romney's victory over John McCain in Michigan last night further complicates the GOP race, and continues to prove how this is by no means a normal election. Momentum does not seem to be important to voters right now, but I think this victory signals a shift that will happen nationally in the next few states: identity politics to issues.

In Iowa, Huckabee won because of the turnout of evangelical voters that feel they must vote for him because he himself is an evangelical. He is liberal on many key conservative issues, such as taxes, immigration, and national security; he is, however, forgiven by his evangelical compatriots. In New Hampshire, McCain won (again) as the turnout of Independents greatly benefit him (again). Polls touting Obama as the obvious Democrat winner probably convinced many Independents to vote for McCain instead.

In Michigan, however, Romney's family history (his father was a MI governor), while I'm sure it didn't hurt, probably isn't why he won. Romney has been spending a lot of time and money in that state trying to appeal to conservatives and Republicans, something Huckabee and McCain seem to have no interest in doing. Giuliani and Thompson are doing the same as Romney, but in they had no presence in Michigan to speak of. I believe that as this race goes on, Huckabee and McCain will fade away as nominees who are running a very broad, shallow campaign as opposed to the deep, narrow campaigns of Romney, Giuliani, and Thompson.

Outlook

The GOP field is now very cluttered, and it could stay that way for another couple weeks. If Thompson can pull a second or even definitive third in South Carolina, he can become a serious candidate with a revitalized campaign. If he gains some airtime and momentum, his true conservatism could attract Republican voters in other states.

Huckabee will have to fight in SC, where his numbers have begun to slip, and in the long run he will need to extend his appeal beyond evangelicals. I do not think he can.

Giuliani's next target is Florida, and he could very well win it. His lack of any presence thus far is damaging him greatly, but if he pulls through in Florida, he has a shot. He is also in the top tier in many Super Tuesday states. If he wins in Florida, we'll have yet another major candidate to consider in this crazy contest.

McCain is an interesting study. He leads in the national polls by nearly 10 points (RCP average), but I really do not think he can get the nomination. Against a Democrat, he could probably do very well, but in the race against the 3 aforementioned targeting conservatives, he will begin to have trouble in closed primaries that are only available to GOP voters (unlike NH and MI).

A major question going into the election process that voters have to ask is that of electability.

The Democrats

The Democratic field only consists of 2 candidates: Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Electability doesn't appear to be going through the minds of any voters at this point, which is actually typical of Democrats. Clinton has a major advantage in the nomination race: She is the establishment candidate. And in the Democratic Party, the establishment candidate has always won. 2000: Al Gore defeats insurgent Bill Bradley. 2004: John Kerry defeats insurgent Howard Dean. It is very likely that now, in 2008, Hillary Clinton will defeat insurgent Barack Obama.

But in a national race, electability is a difficult question between these. They are both very similar on the issues, but likability is a big difference. Barack Obama is just more likable than Hillary Clinton. This gives him a much greater chance over any Republican, none of which seem to have the likability that Obama enjoys.

The Republicans

The GOP field is interesting because each candidate has individual obstacles to overcome. However, what will become the primary difference between the candidates will be the issues and conservatism. None of the candidates are Ronald Reagan, but some are more conservative than others. Conservatism wins in this country every time it runs against liberalism, and Republicans need to choose a conservative. This rules out both McCain and Huckabee, who are blatantly liberal on several issues, not least of which include immigration and taxes. If we nominate any of the candidates except for these two, I believe that ticket can defeat either Democrat.

The Last Word

For the Democrats, the most electable nationally is probably Barack Obama, not because of the issues but because of how likable he is. For the Republicans, any candidate other than Huckabee or McCain can defeat either Democrat.