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What Tonight Really Means

Tonight's two contests fulfilled virtually every prediction. Clinton is winning a narrow but decisive victory in Indiana, but losing by a very large margin in North Carolina. It is still early in the returns, but it is no question that he wins NC, and by a larger margin than he loses in Indiana.

What does this mean? Let's first look at how the Obama camp will spin it.

Obama's victory means that he is the more popular. He was able to win big in North Carolina and lose small in Indiana. The pure math is in his favor and indicates him as more electable, and thus more appropriate for the nomination. It is just another in his long list of states that he has racked up and indicates a will among the electorate for his nomination.

This is what the campaign will say, and most likely what the Democratic leadership will take into consideration. It is now extremely difficult for Hillary to steal this nomination, even though I still believe she is the one who should run against McCain. Why do I think this, even after this night that looks so good for Obama?

What I think tonight really proved was Obama as the race candidate. He won over 90% of the black vote, and in NC this is over 1/3 of the electorate. This allowed every network to call the state the second the polls closed. In Indiana, he did just as well among blacks, but there simply weren't enough to counter Clinton's popularity in the other groups. Clinton won, in both states, both white men and women, seniors, uneducated citizens, and working class voters. This is the majority of America and the majority of voters.

Tonight should prove to the superdelegates that Barack Obama cannot win outside of the "black belt" if you will, such as the south. He won other states early on because of a wise campaign strategy that focused on caucus states and his messianic speeches about change and hope. But he lost that magic. He looked like an absolute idiot at the debate in Philadelphia, is on record for insulting the religious beliefs and gun ownership of the majority of Americans, is close to a pastor that has repeatedly insulted his country and associated Obama with him, is close to a terrorist who has attempted to bomb multiple government establishments, and is married to a woman who has never before felt proud to be an American. This will all come out again in the general election.

Clinton carries baggage as well. But she is doing an incredible job lately overcoming these negatives. She looks vibrant, looks happy, looks friendly, and looks like she's having fun. Her interview with Bill O'Reilly was smart, and she looked on her game and intelligent. She is down to earth and has a clear set of solutions.

Barack Obama seems to have a golden road to the nomination because of the thick-headedness of Democratic party leaders. But he cannot beat McCain. He will get eaten alive by not only McCain but by independent groups that will do everything they can to keep him out of the White House. He just claimed, in his NC victory speech, that Thomas Jefferson was a Democrat! Watching this speech, he sounds like he is trying to rejuvenate the magic that got him through the string of states after Super Tuesday. That is what it was: magic. Barack Obama is a complete moron with no qualifications whatsoever for president. He will absolutely destroy this country for every American, rich and poor. His policy is unwise, unsound, and poorly thought out. This will be proven when McCain spars with him and shows that this guy just doesn't have a clue.

Barack Obama is change we can't believe in. He hasn't done a thing in the name of change for his entire career. He is in it for a promotion; if he really cared about the party and the country, he would drop out and throw his support behind Hillary. Same goes for her. They are selfish and only in it for themselves. I want Hillary Clinton to win the national to avoid the redefinition of the GOP while still maintaining some semblance of a successful America, but if Obama gets in there is no avoiding the disasters he will incur.

Tonight means that Obama is the race candidate. He cannot win in the general election, where blacks don't make up 1/3 of the electorate. McCain will win the south, and Obama will get creamed in the swing states. So who knows: maybe a few smart Dems will realize it's Clinton's chance. But I doubt it. And the Democrats will, as Paul Krugman said, "snatch defeat from the jaws of victory."

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The Comeback Kid, Part 2

What a night for Hillary Clinton! Her nearly ten-point victory in Pennsylvania Tuesday night over Barack Hussein Obama put her back in the race, and in no small way. Make no mistake about it: this was a blowout. The polls were predicting a five- or six-point margin, and Obama spent nearly three times as much as Clinton did in the Keystone State. She still massacred him by a near double-digit lead. This is not only bad news for Obama, but also for the Democratic Party and its leaders.


By winning Pennsylvania, Clinton has called into question one of the most hailed qualities brought up about Barack Obama: his ability to unite. Obama still cannot beat her; Tuesday night wasn’t even close! My question to Obama supporters is this: How do you expect a man to unite the entire country when, after three months of primaries and nearly a year of campaigning, he can’t even unite his own party? Yes, he has a slight delegate majority, but in the popular vote that includes Michigan and Florida, he has virtually no lead. The magic that got him through several major primaries and caucuses is gone: we don’t hear the “change, hope, future” mantra like we used to.


His electability is also becoming a serious question that the superdelegates have to address. And that is what matters: the superdelegates. Neither of these candidates can get the 2025 delegates needed to secure the nomination. If you look at the general election, Clinton actually has the better chances. Out of the past seven presidents, two have been Democrats. Both have been from the south, and have thus won the south. But now, as in 2000 and 2004, it will be swing states that decide who gets the majority of electoral votes. These states are Ohio, Florida, and Michigan. Clinton is the one who can beat McCain here, not Obama. They are classic Clinton demographic, just like Pennsylvania: mostly white, older populations, lower incomes. She gets 60+% of each of these groups virtually every time. Obama did well in states that are going to go Republican in November anyway.


The debate in Philadelphia last Wednesday night didn’t help Obama much either. The majestic image of strength, hope, and unity just fell apart when his script got taken away. He can barely string two words together without an “umm” or “uhh,” and clearly has no idea what the capital gains tax is or how it works. His socialism was blatant when he claimed that he would raise taxes on the rich not for economic gains but for the sake of “fairness.” He wouldn’t take a stand on the D.C. gun ban, even after he claimed that people in middle America “cling to guns, religion, and antipathy towards those different from themselves” because of their economic frustrations. (In Pennsylvania, Clinton won 60% of gun owners and Church goers.)


At the same debate, Clinton had her act together. Her clear, concise answers to many of the economic questions made Barack look incompetent and foolish. She also didn’t stutter, and her references to the economic prosperity of the 1990s (of which she wishes to appear involved with) reminded people of the great times of that decade. It is a winning strategy for her: Elect another Clinton for another 8 years of economic success!


Clinton’s campaign has also been extremely successful in the recent weeks. While the debate was I think a stroke of luck (way to go Charlie Gibson for holding him accountable to the facts about taxes), Clinton is the one who has torn Obama off the pedestal that he was on. She is attacking him relentlessly on his inexperience and lack of substance. Her husband is saying that his victory in South Carolina was the same as Jesse Jackson’s in the 1980s. Gerry Ferraro is saying that he is only successful because he’s black. And they will not apologize for anything they are saying! They’re tougher on Obama than McCain has been. And how does Obama respond? He whines about negativity. He is being wimpy and more of a woman than Clinton ever was. As I mentioned above: the magic is gone.


Compared to McCain, however, I believe both of them will be greatly disadvantaged. While McCain isn’t the best of speakers, he’ll look fine in a debate setting. When he lays out the facts of his economic plan that have proven plans to help the economy and lower gas prices, he will pick up a lot of support. He will garner a huge number of center and even center-left voters, leaving either Democrat in the dust.

I do not know which candidate will be nominated. But it is unquestionable that Clinton is the more electable than Obama in the general contest. If the superdelegates are smart, they’ll nominate her. But as evidenced by the past thirty years, Democrats don’t know how to nominate a candidate. So in conclusion, while it is glaringly obvious to anyone with a brain stem that Clinton has a better chance than the moronic pretty-boy Obama, the Democrats still may not make that smart decision. And if they don’t, McCain is assured a seat in that White House on January 21, 2009.

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Democrats in Crisis

Charlie Gibson and George Stephonopoupoppolis (spelling?) have left me shocked and awed, in the best way. Last night's debate on ABC, moderated by both these two ABC news anchors, exposed Clinton and Obama for the true liberals and, quite frankly, morons they are. Both proved their incompetence, lack of knowledge, disdain for America, and socialist initiatives that I am sure turned off the 10 million people watching last night.

Let's start with Obama. This man cannot string two words together without and "umm" or an "uhh" if his life depended on it. He is not articulate or a fluent speaker unless he has a teleprompter or transcript in front of him. I'll be the last to argue Bush is articulate, but at least he admits it. Obama is made out to be one of the best speakers in the history of presidential candidates, on par with JFK. Well I'll tell you, he is no Jack Kennedy.

He also is clearly oblivious to the way the economy works at all. The argument of whether or not income tax cuts or hikes help the economy is one that can be argued intelligently from both sides. Historical numbers can indicate the success of both cuts and hikes of the income tax. However, last night Gibson pressed Obama on the issue of the capital gains tax, a tax applied to companies on their profits. This tax trickles down to any stockholder that owns a stake in this company. During the Clinton administration, this tax was reduced from 28% to 20%. Bush then cut it further to 15%. Both cuts have resulted in revenue increases from this particular tax. It is agreed by any economist: cutting the capital gains tax will increase government revenue. More people invest in stock, and thus that 15% of a greater number becomes a larger amount of money than 20% of a smaller number. But Obama either doesn't understand this or doesn't care. When Gibson explained to him that a) cutting the capital gains tax increased revenue both times and b) 100 million Americans (that's about 1/3 of our nation's population) own stock and thus would be affected by a hike, Obama was oblivious. He was clueless. His response was virtually I don't know. (Quote: "It might or it might not. We'll just have to see how things are on Wall Street." Does he get that the capital gains tax can directly affect Wall Street's condition?)

His inability to defend his "patriotism" was also blatantly obvious. He was asked why he doesn't wear a flag pin. He claims that he has "never said that he wouldn't wear one." YOU DO NOT WEAR ONE, MR. OBAMA. He stated that he wore one recently at an event, but only after a disabled veteran asked him to. Last year at an event, he explained that he didn't want to wear the flag pin because he wanted to show "true patriotism" by stating his opposition to the war. So in effect, he isn't wearing it to cater to the kook left that is screaming "Bush lied, kids died" and blames America for everything. His ties to extremists were also brought up. He is "friendly" with a man who set bombs in the Pentagon and, after 9/11, claimed that they "didn't do enough." He served as a paid board member with him even after 9/11 and these comments. Obama tried to sidestep the issue saying it isn't important. But it is, and people have to understand this. Obama is unknown, and the people he is involved with are crucial to judging his character. No one will disagree when I say that the word of a politician is no good, especially a liar as skilled as Obama. When he is found "friendly" with a terrorist, "family" with a man like Jeremiah Wright, his wife calling America ignorant and that she hasn't been proud to be an American until now, a pattern of hatred and anti-Americanism emerges. He does not love this country. His comments in San Francisco display his dislike of the common man, the gun-toting God-fearing NASCAR fans in the heartland that make this country work.

Hillary's performance was equally amusing. Her approach, however, was probably much smarter. Will it pay off? I don't know. But she did the right thing. She knows she has Pennsylvania. She knows that it is unlikely she can change the minds of the people who really don't like her. Her job is to get the superdelegates to realize she is the only one with a real shot in November. She referred often to the "1990s," and how she would basically return our economic policy to those years (which were, we all agree, years of great economic prosperity). She dodged a bullet, not having to defend her husband's pardon of several terrorists of the group she accused Obama of fraternizing with, but I can explain it: it was to get the Puerto Rican vote in New York for her Senate race in 2000, not because of their ideology. (Not that I condone it, but it speaks to her character (or lack thereof) more than to her ideology.) She really didn't present anything new or revolutionary, and did not exhibit any ghastly lack of knowledge. She, like Obama, agreed to raise taxes on incomes over $250,000 but cut taxes on lower incomes, and also promised not to allow the capital gains tax go over "what it was in the 1990s" (i.e., 20%).

Both were either pandering or just again pandering to the left when their plans for lowering gas prices involved looking into price manipulation by the oil companies. Of course there is price manipulation, but it is by the Middle Eastern nations in OPEC that control our supply! And there is nothing we can do about that. But we can lower gas prices by either drilling our own oil or simply cutting gas taxes, as McCain has promised to attempt. He suggested a tax-free gas day on Memorial Day. Can you imagine tax-free gas? It would be over 50 cents cheaper in some states! That would also prove where the majority of the gas money goes: the government, not some CEO's wallet.

The Democrats are in crisis mode, and the party leaders have no idea what to do. Neither of these candidates can beat McCain. McCain is smart, has character, and has definite plans for our future. He clearly cares about America and our international interests. He has what it takes to win. Neither Clinton nor Obama do. It is McGovern all over again. The superdelegates were created after the McGovern fiasco, and this is exactly when it is time for them to hit code red. They have to choose a third nominee. I have no idea who. In fact, I don't think they have anyone. But if they don't they're definitely screwed. I don't think the DNC has the intelligence to make this move, but it's the only way they're going to win. Over 10 million viewers watched two idiots make complete fools of themselves on broadcast television. Not something the Democrats can be too happy about.

So all in all, a great night for John McCain. And a bad night for the Democratic Party as the sun sets on their presidential prospects.

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The Character of John McCain

I have openly stated in previous posts my opposition to John McCain. But I want to make it clear that these oppositions are purely based on issues. McCain has the most character and integrity of the three current presidential candidates; it's just a shame that he happens to be a liberal.

McCain believes what he says and has acted on it in Congress. For example, Barack Obama claims to be a unifier that will cross party lines and work with Republicans on issues. In his two years in the Senate, Obama has never drafted legislation with Republicans and has voted with his party 97% of the time. He has skipped "tough" votes that could come back to bite him in the campaign. If you really want someone who will work with both sides, vote John McCain. (This is, in fact, one reason I dislike him.) He has drafted controversial legislation such as the immigration bill (which was more pro-immigrant than Obama's "yea" vote on a border fence, even after he criticized conservatives for being too anti-immigrant) and McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform, both of which have been extremely unpopular among his party's base.

McCain has refrained as much as possible from negative attacks on the two Democrats. While I am sure that will change once a nominee is chosen, he is not attacking Obama's idiotic comments about the U.S.'s China policy or Clinton's lies about Bosnia. Obama, however, has ridiculed McCain and said it was "about time" when McCain called for greater government intervention in the pay distribution of companies such as Bear Stearns. McCain even called Obama "qualified to be president." This shocked and disturbed me, but again, goes to his character. There is no need to say that; in fact, it is unwise to say that about your opponent even if it is true (which it most definitely is not).

He served in Vietnam, and actually believed what he was doing was right. He survived as a POW and didn't return to stomp on his own medals. He has been a man for the troops and for our noble venture in Iraq ever since it began over five years ago. His goal is success, regardless of the political circumstances.

The long and short of it is that I believe McCain is in this for America. He honestly thinks that he is making this country a better place, and as president can do so. While I disagree with much of his ideology, and do not want the failures of liberal policy being attributed to a newly defined Republican Party, I respect that America's interests are at heart, not his own. Clinton and Obama do not care about their party or their country; they are two selfish politicians fighting over a promotion. If either of them did care, they would step down for the sake of the voters. The fact that they haven't, and most definitely won't until the party votes, proves what is really important to them.

I am greatly disappointed that McCain is the nominee, and I am worried about the possibilities his presidency could bring both in our diplomatic relations and domestic policy initiatives. But one thing is for sure: he is by far the most qualified of the three to run this country, and has more character than the other two could ever have. And when he's sparring with one of these Dems in front of Tim Russert in the fall, this may be a big factor for the voters.
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The Electability Question Revisited

Happy April Fool's Day! I just want to make it clear that this post is not humorous or satirical in any way. I actually attempted to write one about how Obama is the second coming, but realized that too many people already believe it to be true for it to be effective. But I digress.

As the poll numbers begin to take shape in the two situations for the general election, Obama's prospects are darkening by the day. While McCain has a very good chance of beating either candidate, he has not yet been touched in general election campaigning which could turn the tables. The real question is which Democrat can do better in the electoral college, the thing that really matters as we have seen in both 2000 and 2004.

There are certain states that either party always win (except for the presence of an extraordinary leader, such as Ronald Reagan). In fact, if you look at the only 2 Democrats to be elected of the past 7, the only way they could accumulate enough electoral votes is by garnering southern states (which, in both cases, were because of their home states: Carter of Georgia, Clinton of Arkansas). Every other election, the Democrats have only gotten votes from the urban, liberal strongholds of the Northeast and West Coast, with major cities like Chicago and Minneapolis delivering a few states in between. Other than that, the Republican can be relatively safe in assuming that the South and the majority of the Midwest will go red. This election is no exception in this regard, both Democrats being from traditionally left-leaning states anyways.

What does any of this mean for the battle between Clinton and Obama? Let's look at the primary results. Clinton has done very well in the two swing states: Florida and Ohio. She has won virtually all the states that Democrats need in November: New York, Pennsylvania, California, and much of New England. Obama has won more states, yes, and therefore more delegates; these states, however, are going to go to McCain anyways.

Now we have to decide which poll numbers are the most important. National polls are more like a gauge of popularity as opposed to a legitimate predictor of election results. Obama has been ahead of McCain nationally for most of the election, until recently when McCain has pulled ahead narrowly. McCain has been ahead of Clinton for most of the election, and remains so by a greater margin. However, this does not truly show whose chances are better in the general election. The three most interesting states I want to mention are Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Here are the numbers, according to the RCP average of all major poll data:

Florida:
McCain-Obama: McCain +6.8
McCain-Clinton: McCain +2.8
Ohio:
McCain-Obama: McCain +7.0
McCain-Clinton: Clinton +0.3
Pennsylvania:
McCain-Obama: McCain +2.2
McCain-Clinton: McCain +0.4

These are very bad indicators for Obama, because it shows why Clinton is the more electable of the two. She can accumulate electoral votes more easily, and is more popular in the Democratic states. The superdelegates will see this and will vote for her. I find the Democratic nomination process hysterical in its confusion, especially after some of the comments of some prominent party leaders. Ted Kennedy, John Kerry, and Bill Richardson are all supporting Obama (and are all superdelegates themselves). And they claim that superdelegates should reflect the popular vote (which favors Obama). They conveniently forget, however, that the states they represent (Massachusetts and New Mexico) voted for Clinton! So they are completly ignoring the will of their constituents, but yet they want all the other superdelegates to do the opposite? Which popular vote do you wish to reflect? In fact, even the regular delegates can vote unbound for whomever they want! The party is in madness.

The reality is, now, that Obama is the less electable of the two. The polls and electoral college show this to be true. As Clinton gears up to win Pennsylvania in exactly three weeks, the superdelegates can decide to run Clinton (who has a moderate chance) or Obama (who will get destroyed by McCain). Knowing the Democratic Party and the geniuses running it...


the choice is not so obvious.
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Move a Little to the Wright

The Obama campaign has finally proven why they are going to have a hard time winning the superdelegates this summer and possibly even the election this fall. He is an unknown quantity.

To sum up recent events, videos have come to light of Jeremiah Wright, Barack Obama's pastor of 20 years and extremely close friend and mentor, making extremist and frightening anti-American and anti-white sermons. His message is one of hate and racism, claiming such things as:

  • 9/11 was simply America's chickens coming home to roost;
  • "God bless America? God-damn America!"
  • The U.S. of K.K.K. A.
  • America created HIV/AIDS to start a genocide in Africa
The list goes on, and it is painful to even listen to. You can look them up for yourself on YouTube; I, for one, do not wish to embed such horrible videos on my site.

But what does this mean for Barack? Whatever it means, it is not good. In fact, this could single-handedly tank his campaign. Barack has been campaigning on "change we can believe in" and "yes we can." These bumper sticker slogans sound great...until we learn that they are quotes from Rev. Wright. He quoted an entire speech of his in one of his books, which included the line "Where whites breed, troubles seed." Wright was the first man he called for thanks after winning his Illinois State Senate seat.

The idea that Barack was unaware of such outrageous statements is preposterous. He would not allow Wright to deliver the invocation because he knew that this would simply turn the public eye on him, revealing these sermons that have scared so many Americans.

I will say this: if my own father were a pastor and began making statements like this from the pulpit, I would walk out and never come back to that church. And I expect every self-respecting American to do the same. Barack Obama is an unknown quality, with no track record to speak of or back him up. When you are an unknown, these seemingly little things are very important to who you are and what the public should think of you. We all know what kind of man Hillary married. We all know the types of tactics they use in their campaigns. These all go to her character (or lack thereof). But Obama has no such public record, and this is a major addition to that resume.

But what is really important here, at least to the Democrats, is not what was said, but the sheer surprise it has provoked. This is exactly the type of thing the superdelegates would fear in an Obama nomination, and why they would stay with the safe choice of Hillary Clinton. Obama will not come from this unscathed by any means; in fact, for the first time in a while, McCain has surged past the declining Obama in the realclearpolitics.com poll average since these videos have aired.

His speech today was supposedly brilliant, but it was about race and the deep divisions of America. While these are important issues, the president is not some type of cultural healer. We have major economic and national security problems to deal with right now; frankly, I'd take someone with the public face of Richard Nixon if I knew he could take care of these. Maybe in ten years we can handle a Barack Obama to close our cultural gaps, but right now we need an economic and military leader. Obama is not it.

Furthermore, I would like to know how Obama unites. He can't even get half of his party to support him, much less half of the country. That's because most of the people in this country realize he is full of crap, and a pretty picture on the wall may look nice but is only that: a pretty picture. Geraldine Ferraro was half-right: his success is due to his great ability to communicate (albeit nothing) and to his race.

While his speech today might put a band-aid on the wound so deeply inflicted, not by Wright himself, but by Obama's foolish and despicable maintenance of a close relationship with this horrible individual, it will not help to convince the superdelegates that he can win in November. In fact, it will only prove that this mystery man is exactly that, and nothing can change that between now and election day. Now more than ever, Hillary is going to be the safe vote. It will be close, but she will win Pennsylvania in a few weeks, and she will win the nomination in a couple months.

God BLESS America.
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The Clinton Way

The Obama-Clinton battle is getting more furious every day, and is causing chaos and confusion among the entire Democratic Party. It has come to a point where no matter who is nominated, a significant number of Democrats will be greatly alienated; the question now is which candidate will create a smaller one of these groups.

Hillary Clinton wants this win more than anyone can imagine. This has been the plan of the Clintons since their aspirations began, and she is not going to let some junior senator newbie from Illinois ruin it because of a bunch of crazed lunatics that support him. Her gloves have truly come off.

Over the past few weeks, especially since the rejuvenation of her campaign on March 4, we've heard the bitter words being bounced around by these two candidates. Clinton especially has been noted as being extremely vicious toward Obama's campaign.

The most recent wave is Democratic Party relic and Clinton supporter Geraldine Ferraro, who was the first woman on a presidential ticket as Mondale's VP in 1984. She basically claimed that if Barack Obama weren't black, he wouldn't be anywhere near as successful in this election as he is.

First a quick aside as to the validity of this statement. It is curious. What are his merits? He is an excellent speaker, very personable, and says what we all want to hear. Are these really the only qualities that have led to his success? I'm not so sure. There are plenty of white politicians with the same qualities. Why aren't they leading a cult of delusional followers?

That being said, in the days since she said this statement, she has been bombarded by attacks from the media and the Obama campaign calling her a racist. Obama on the Today Show told Matt Lauer that he would never say Hillary has gotten to where she is because she is a woman. But Ferraro, being a tough and loud-spoken individual, is not backing down. Instead, she is stating how offended she is to be called a racist. All she did was make an observation about Obama's success and its relation to his skin color; she never said she preferred black or white, etc. etc.

The way Ferraro was pounced upon sounds awfully familiar to me...oh, that's right, that happens to every single Republican who even mentions race. "Macacca," which was used by the Democrats to tank a very successful and viable Republican Senator; many of Ann Coulter's comments; and even Rush Limbaugh when he claimed on ESPN that McNabb's success is due in no small part to his skin color.

It is fascinating to see the Democrats being shocked at the tactics that they have employed towards Republicans for so many years, but only when they are employed at each other. Articles pop up every day about how Clinton is doing some sneaky this or tricksy that, how she is throwing cheap shots or low blows. But we Republicans knew this would happen; we experienced them completely unleash their tactics on us for nearly a decade.

This, of course, is highly beneficial to the GOP, for multiple reasons. For one, McCain has no grapes, and his campaign has even issued "talking points" about what can and cannot be said about Barack Obama so as not to set off the sensitive issue of his race, middle name "Hussein," and other things. It appears that even Hillary is more readily going after Obama than McCain will, which is dangerous considering Obama's possible (if not likely) nomination.

But also, as the Democrats tear each other apart, the rift in the party will be far more damaging than the rift on the Republican side. Yes, many Republicans have their differences with McCain; but in the end, the party wins us over. (Who am I kidding, I don't think I'll be flicking that Clinton lever in November, regardless of my feelings about McCain.) We've been grappling with this party battle for decades. But the Democrats have never experienced such a split, and it should be interesting to see how this nominating process pans out for them, for us, and for the country.
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Yes We Will!!

As Hillary took the stage for her victory speech in Columbus, Ohio, last night, there was one thing going through our minds: "Welcome back." (Or "Crap, why won't you just go away, you witch!") After a long stretch of losses to the Magic Negro, Clinton's massive and surprising victories in Ohio, Texas, and Rhode Island have rejuvenated her campaign and put her back on the map.

What does this mean, and why did she need it?

The Democratic race is no longer about delegate count. It is about the unaffiliated superdelegates that get to decide the nominee regardless of popular opinion. Technically before last night there was a chance either could gain the 2025 delegates needed, but it was unlikely. It is now impossible; there simply aren't enough delegates to go around. This election is probably going all the way to the convention this summer.

These big wins are about showing the superdelegates who is the real nominee, and who the mainstream electorate wants to be president. She didn't pick up any significant delegate numbers last night; in fact, Obama may have come out with more in Texas. But the state still gets put in the Clinton column, and that's all the superdelegates will care about. She has won all the major states, while Obama has won the little ones. The next primary is Pennsylvania, but it's not for another 7 weeks, which will continue to bleed each candidate dry on the campaign trail. Clinton is all but guaranteed a victory there, with double-digit leads in the polls.

It is impossible to say who is going to get the superdelegates' votes. I think it will split very evenly down the middle. There is a valid argument for each side. For Clinton: She is a known factor, she's been around for a long time, her ideas are more concrete and logical. For Obama: He is a new face, his numbers are better for electability, he will be much prettier compared to the 72-year-old McCain, and he is a brilliant speaker.

As I predicted, crunch time is approaching and the party is fleeing from the unknown Obama to the safe Clinton. She demonstrated her "experience" over the NAFTA deal these past weeks, as she was in the White House for its creation. The SNL skit mocking the media's Obama-favor also definitely helped, especially because of its accuracy. (83% of "objective" news coverage of Obama was positive. That is ridiculous!)

A group of Democrat leaders were about to approach Clinton requesting her to drop out in order to maintain unity in the party. But there is no way she will now. She wants this more than anyone can imagine, and she has a real shot. She'd rather take her chances in the general election for her own benefit than drop out for the benefit of the party.

Congratulations, Mrs. Clinton. Welcome back.
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1976, the Reagan Revolution, and 2008


Time for a little history lesson.

In 1976, the Republican Party was in shambles. After Richard Nixon's scandals and Gerald Ford's inadequacy, GOP campaign buttons read "Republicans Are People Too!" This party was only the party of the elderly and the rich, the white and the Protestant. It was small, broken, and unpopular. The United States wanted change.

The GOP race for the nomination that year came down to a battle between Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan. Ford won a narrow victory over Reagan, then proceeded to lose decisively to Democrat Jimmy Carter.

After Carter's victory, the US witnessed one of the worst presidencies in its history. He encouraged a revolution in Iran, alienating one of our key geopolitical allies in the Cold War. His oil taxes and gasoline policies caused one of the worst energy crises ever, with gas more expensive than today and lines at the gas station onto the street. His approval ratings were (rightly so) lower than even George W. Bush's. I could spend the entire post exploring the shortcomings of the Carter presidency, but I have a greater point.

In 1980, Ronald Reagan re-entered the political arena. His message of true conservatism, individualism, small government, and strong defense against the growing Soviet threat inspired and united Americans around his cause. He spoke with conviction, skill, and pride; his message was one of hope, strength, and love for our country. It was an indelible message, rejuvenating the Republican Party and breathing life into what had become a corpse. A whole new electorate appeared, coming to be known as "Reagan Democrats." This term is still used by many to describe Democrats that recognize the truth of conservatism.

In 1980, Reagan won one of the most decisive victories of our time. He carried 44 states, with 50.7% of the popular vote to Carter's 41%. It was an incredible change of the winds: a candidate that couldn't even get nominated winning by an incredible margin.

Is 2008 so different? Let's take a closer look. The Republican Party is groping in the dark right now, hoping for a president that can re-orient it. George W. Bush has done a fine job, as did Richard Nixon, but he has done damage that cannot be simply ignored. It is going to take someone in the true Reagan tradition to do just that. This year, that man in the GOP race was Mitt Romney. Thompson had the issues, but only Romney had it all. Like Reagan was, he is the governor of a traditionally liberal state. His changes on issues over the years (such as abortion) are just as suspect as Reagan's tax hikes in California. Other similarities: The Soviet Union? Terrorism. Economy? Weakening.

John McCain is in the same position as Gerald Ford was. Yes, McCain was a virtual nobody, unlike Ford (who was the president until 1976). But while this may make his success more remarkable, it does not change the fact that he is not what this blind party needs. He was chosen on a whim, by people who simply followed his momentum and chose the phantom of electability over what really matters: conservatism. McCain's back-room deals with Huckabee and Giuliani did no damage to him either.

As we look back, we can use this historical perspective to determine what course of action we as conservatives need to take. It may seem back-handed and even ugly at first, but consider it before you dismiss it. We need John McCain to lose in November.

It is a crazy notion, one that many Republicans may shudder at at first; after all, voting for that (R) is something Republicans have been doing religiously ever since the Reagan Revolution. Democrats cross over to us far before we cross over to them. After all, how did they take Congress in 2006? Republicans stayed home.

McCain is a liberal. He would be perfectly at home in the Democratic Party if you look at his record. I won't spend the time examining this, but just a few points that are worth noting before you point at me and say, "But still, he's a Republican!"

  • McCain-Feingold: Co-wrote this bill with Democratic senator Russ Feingold, effectively removing several elements of free speech from the election process.
  • McCain-Kennedy: Co-wrote a bill this summer with Democratic senator Teddy Kennedy, effectively creating amnesty for illegal immigrants and providing no money or resources for border security.
  • Has stated his opposition to overturning the Roe v. Wade decision.
  • Has stated that Samuel Alito is "too conservative".
  • Was part of the "Gang of 14" that opposed many of Bush's court nominees.
  • Fought Bush's tax cuts (which have since lowered the deficit by hundreds of millions in the middle of a war) every step of the way.
The list goes on.

The fact is, we now have 3 Democrats to choose from: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John McCain. The problem with McCain is that as a Republican, he will incur all the responsibility of liberal policies (that have failed at every attempt of implementation) onto our party, and cause a new party era for the Democrats that could last decades.

In 1976, Carter's victory was the best thing for the GOP and, in turn, for the US. Had Ford won, Reagan's outcome would not have been as clear, and we could still be tip-toeing with the Soviet Union right now. The fact is, it was liberalism's failure that put Ronald Reagan and even George W. Bush into the White House, and it will be liberalism's failure that puts a true conservative back in again. The problem is, that failure must be attributed to the official Democratic Party, who currently controls Congress and will most likely expand its majority this year as a large group of Republican terms expire. If they control Washington, they will have nowhere or no one to hide their failures behind. Sure, we have four years of disaster, but this will be followed by many more years of prosperity.

So who will play the part of Ronald Reagan in 2012? I seriously believe Mitt Romney is our man. He has established himself as a top-tier candidate, and his comparison with John McCain has made him look that much more conservative. He has the resources, relative youth, and the backing among conservative leaders that will propel him into the mix in four years. I can hardly speculate on this event so far into the future, but it is something to consider. I don't even think McCain will run in 2012, even if he wins this year; he will be 76 years old come that election.

So who do I choose? I am going to have to say Hillary Clinton. There is definitely something to be said for experience, and at least I won't have to put up with Barack Obama's irritating voice and use of the word "diplomacy". She is also on the right side of the war, which is the most crucial part of this term right now. Furthermore, should she win, we probably won't need to deal with Obama in 2012 as their candidate.

I admit, these are some nutty conclusions, and I do not draw them lightly; but I hope you understand that it is what our great party and country need.
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