Mitt Romney's victory over John McCain in Michigan last night further complicates the GOP race, and continues to prove how this is by no means a normal election. Momentum does not seem to be important to voters right now, but I think this victory signals a shift that will happen nationally in the next few states: identity politics to issues.

In Iowa, Huckabee won because of the turnout of evangelical voters that feel they must vote for him because he himself is an evangelical. He is liberal on many key conservative issues, such as taxes, immigration, and national security; he is, however, forgiven by his evangelical compatriots. In New Hampshire, McCain won (again) as the turnout of Independents greatly benefit him (again). Polls touting Obama as the obvious Democrat winner probably convinced many Independents to vote for McCain instead.

In Michigan, however, Romney's family history (his father was a MI governor), while I'm sure it didn't hurt, probably isn't why he won. Romney has been spending a lot of time and money in that state trying to appeal to conservatives and Republicans, something Huckabee and McCain seem to have no interest in doing. Giuliani and Thompson are doing the same as Romney, but in they had no presence in Michigan to speak of. I believe that as this race goes on, Huckabee and McCain will fade away as nominees who are running a very broad, shallow campaign as opposed to the deep, narrow campaigns of Romney, Giuliani, and Thompson.

Outlook

The GOP field is now very cluttered, and it could stay that way for another couple weeks. If Thompson can pull a second or even definitive third in South Carolina, he can become a serious candidate with a revitalized campaign. If he gains some airtime and momentum, his true conservatism could attract Republican voters in other states.

Huckabee will have to fight in SC, where his numbers have begun to slip, and in the long run he will need to extend his appeal beyond evangelicals. I do not think he can.

Giuliani's next target is Florida, and he could very well win it. His lack of any presence thus far is damaging him greatly, but if he pulls through in Florida, he has a shot. He is also in the top tier in many Super Tuesday states. If he wins in Florida, we'll have yet another major candidate to consider in this crazy contest.

McCain is an interesting study. He leads in the national polls by nearly 10 points (RCP average), but I really do not think he can get the nomination. Against a Democrat, he could probably do very well, but in the race against the 3 aforementioned targeting conservatives, he will begin to have trouble in closed primaries that are only available to GOP voters (unlike NH and MI).